Superdelegates!

By Paul - Posted on 12 May 2008 09:32pm

It's all Obama today as he has picked up the following superdelegates:

  • Hawaii's Dolly Strazar
  • Hawaii Sen. Daniel Akaka
  • Idaho Democratic Party Chairman R. Keith Roark

That makes a net +22 for Obama since last Tuesday's primary and a net +1.5 for Clinton since the same day. Not sure where the 0.5 came from - can't see it looking back in the notes, but whatever.

The totals are now:

PLEDGED: Obama 1,590, Clinton 1,426
SUPERS: Obama 279, Clinton 276.5
TOTAL: Obama 1,869, Clinton 1,702.5

And I think this makes the last major superdelegate list where Obama has overtaken Clinton.

And this is a cool metric from First Read as well:

Here’s a timeline of superdelegate numbers:

  • Feb. 5: Clinton 260-170
  • Feb. 28 (after Obama's winning streak of 11-straight contests): Clinton 254-204
  • March 6 (after OH/TX/RI/VT): 254-215
  • March 14 (After Obama's wins in WY 3/8; MS 3/11): Clinton 253-217
  • March 31: Clinton 255-222
  • April 15: Clinton 257-231
  • April 23 (the day after the PA primary): Clinton 263-239
  • April 30: Clinton 268-248
  • May 5 (day before Indiana/NC primaries): Clinton 272.5-256
  • May 12: Obama 279-276.5

It Never Rains But It Pours

By Paul - Posted on 12 May 2008 02:04pm

Matthew Barrett, late of the 58th state house district, has to feel like a whole house has fallen on him in the last few months.

Not only did he show nudie pics to high school students, throw his son under the bus to take the blame, get caught out lying about the whole thing, but now he has been kicked out of his father's law firm to boot:

Former state Rep. Matt Barrett is no longer with his family’s law firm.

Barrett, D-Amherst, resigned from the Ohio House of Representatives last month after it was learned he had lied about photos of topless women that were displayed to a Norwalk High School government class last year.

It was unclear why or how Barrett left the law firm of Miraldi & Barrett, of which his father, Benjamin Barrett Sr., was a founding partner.

The remaining partners in the firm — the elder Barrett, Benjamin Barrett Jr. and David Miraldi — did not return calls seeking comment. County Common Pleas

Judge Jim Miraldi, who left the firm when he took the bench in 2007, also declined to comment.

A receptionist at the law firm, which specializes in personal injury and medical malpractice work, confirmed Barrett was no longer with the firm, and he has been removed from the company’s Web site.

Wow.

I suppose it's possible he quit, but I wouldn't think that was likely under these circumstances.

It's all remiscient of the old Soviet Union (warning: bad analogy alert!) when someone fell out of favor in the party and suddenly that person just disappeared: no pictures, no mention of his name -- nothing.

Update: Jeff discusses this story here but focuses on the fact that 4 out of 7 applicants live out of the district and that the House Caucus has pushed back the deadline. Not great news.

"Ohio Is Becoming More Republican"

By Paul - Posted on 12 May 2008 01:31pm

That strange quote comes from the mouth of "Mornin'" Joe Scarborough on Thursday's "Race for the White House" program (yes, I'm a little behind on the TiVo).

This statement was said in the great context of Obama's so called up hill battle for the Presidency in November.

The news isn't Joe's ignorance, or deliberate misstatement, it is that no one on the panel challenged him on it.

Let's review the facts about Ohio in the last couple of years.

In 2004, George Bush won 50.82% of the vote in Ohio after taking 50.53% of the vote in 2000, so he had a miniscule up tick there. Against that, in 2004, Democrats picked up a net +3 in the Ohio House and held their seats in the Ohio Senate.

In 2006, Democrats picked up a net +8 in the Ohio House and picked up a net +1 in the Ohio Senate. We picked up one Congressional seat as well. That and we picked up a US Senate seat and four out of five statewide offices.

As things currently stand, we need to pick up a net +4 seats in the Ohio House to control that for the first time since the early 1990s.

One indicator of how things are was shown when the Republicans in the state house recently threw the payday lending industry under the bus, obviously to try to take that off the table as an issue in the upcoming election.

And with all of that going on in Ohio, no one on the panel challenged Scarborough on this obvious "misstatement"?

Of course on the same show, they played this soundbite from Senator Clinton without any challenge:

... and I was always supposed to lose Indiana

Huh?

Listening To Ohio's Uncommitted Superdelegates

By Paul - Posted on 12 May 2008 11:38am

Below is the most recent on the record news about what the eight remaining Ohio uncommitted superdelegates are saying about their thoughts on Obama vs Clinton. Where there are quotes, the link is to the relevant article.

Marcy Kaptur:

Some neutral Democrats, such as Reps. Marcy Kaptur (Ohio), Mike Michaud (Maine), Gene Taylor (Miss.) and Gabrielle Giffords (Ariz.) said they would pick a candidate based in part on how that candidate stood on issues such as trade, defense and immigration.

Kaptur and Michaud are members of a coalition of Democratic lawmakers concerned about trade and manufacturing jobs that has held talks with Clinton and Obama.

Dennis Kucinich:

No news on his stand in the presidential race found in recent weeks.

Charlie Wilson:

No news on his stand in the presidential race found in recent weeks.

Zach Space:

U.S. Rep. Zack Space, uncommitted superdelegate, says he'll stay on the sidelines a little longer in the Democratic presidential race.

And the freshman congressman from Dover told MSNBC's Chris Matthews last night that he doesn't think he should even be allowed on the field come 2012.

Space said he thinks Democrats should do away with superdelegates, which he called undemocratic-with-a-small-d.

As for hanging back a full two months after casting his vote in Ohio's March 4 primary, Space said he'll gladly support Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton in the fall and doesn't want people to question his fervor should that nominee end up being the candidate he hadn't endorsed.

He might like his choices in November, but he faces a difficult one now. Space can either endorse the candidate who won two-thirds of the vote in his congressional district (Clinton), or he can endorse the candidate who's much more likely to win the nomination (Obama).

Sherrod Brown:

The morning after Sen. Barack Obama won a decisive victory in the North Carolina primary and Sen. Hillary Clinton narrowly defeated Obama in Indiana's primary, Sen. Sherrod Brown is still undecided about who he'll support.

Brown, a Democrat from Lorain in northern Ohio, is among the last remaining super delegates who have not endorsed a candidate. He's the highest ranking super delegate in Ohio to remain uncommitted.

"I will probably not endorse until the primary's are over in early June," Brown said this morning.

Joyce Beatty:

Ohio Sate Rep. Joyce Beatty, the House minority leader, has been contacted "multiple times" by Michelle Obama, former President Clinton, Chelsea Clinton and others, said her spokesman Phil Faken.

"She wants to let the process run its course," he said.

Chris Redfern:

"It's about the numbers, and the numbers are the numbers," Ohio Democratic Party chairman Chris Redfern told the New York Times today. "It's not about hand-wringing. And Senator Obama has the lead," said Redfern, an uncommitted superdelegate.

William Craig Bashein:

No news on his stand in the presidential race found in recent weeks.

Two More For Obama

By Paul - Posted on 12 May 2008 11:12am

Notch up two more superdelegates for Senator Obama:

Late yesterday it was California superdelegate Crystal Strait, a Young Democrats of America board member.

This morning it was Maine congressman and candidate for U.S. Senate Tom Allen.

This brings the numbers to this:

PLEDGED: Obama 1,590, Clinton 1,426
SUPERS: Clinton 276.5, Obama 276
TOTAL: Obama 1,866, Clinton 1,702.5

A number of counts being run by other media outlets already have Obama ahead of Clinton in the superdelegate count. Each organization seems to have a different method of counting (huh?) but I started with NBC and will therefore stick with them.

Strickland Back On VP List?

By Paul - Posted on 11 May 2008 12:44pm

Bob Novak, who generally spends his waking moments pushing Mitt Romney for the GOP VP has written this week about the beginnings of the Democratic VP search:

Support is growing in Democratic ranks for Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland as vice president. He would bring to the ticket maturity (66 years old), experience (six terms in Congress) and moderation (rated "A" by the National Rifle Association). He is very popular in Ohio, a state Republicans must carry to elect a president.

Also, Chris Cillizza at the Washington Post puts Strickland as #2 on his list:

Although Obama may not feel compelled to name Clinton to the ticket, he is well aware of the need to offer an olive branch of sorts to the backers of the senator from New York. Strickland, the first-term governor of Ohio, may fit the bill. Not only is he an active and high-profile Clinton supporter, but he is also the popular chief executive of a state that Obama must find a way to win if he hopes to be president.

With the whole Dann situation going on right now, this adds a twist to the whole Strickland as VP story line.

Some have mentioned Lee Fisher, our current Lt. Governor, to be Dann's replacement if Dann finally gets a clue and resigns or is pushed out. *If* Fisher takes over as AG (a big if - lots of other good names out there) the choice of Lt Gov would be watched very closely.

However, Obama needs to pick his VP by the convention in late August. The timing of all of this would be interesting, to say the least.

One real impediment for choosing Strickland is this video clip:

Superdelegate Reset

By Paul - Posted on 11 May 2008 11:51am

The last few day's superdelegate round up:

For Clinton:

  • Pennsylvania Representative Chris Carney
  • Massachusetts superdelegate add-on Arthur Powell

For Obama:

  • North Carolina Representative Brad Miller
  • Washington Representative Rick Larsen
  • New Jersey Representative Donald Payne switched from Clinton to Obama
  • Oregon Representative Peter DeFazio
  • California DNC Member Ed Espinoza
  • South Carolina DNC Member Wilber Lee Jeffcoat
  • Hawaii Representative Mazie Hirono
  • New Mexico superdelegate add-on Laurie Weahkee
  • Utah superdelegate add-on Kristi Cumming
  • Virgin Islands superdelegate Carol Burke switched from Clinton to Obama
  • Virgin Islands superdelegate Kevin Rodriguez switched from Clinton to Obama
  • Ohio Labor Leader Dave Regan
  • Arizona Congressman Harry Mitchell

By my count this is a net +17 for Obama and a net 0 (3 gained, 3 lost) for Clinton since last Tuesday's primaries. Not quite a "flood" but the race certainly *is* over.

As for the totals:

The NBC NEWS delegate counts:
PLEDGED: Obama 1,590, Clinton 1,426
SUPERS: Clinton 276.5, Obama 274
TOTAL: Obama 1,864, Clinton 1,702.5

SR31 - Republican Drops Out

By Paul - Posted on 11 May 2008 09:09am

Politics Extra has the news that Scott Gehring, the Republican candidate for the 31st state house district, is dropping out of the race.

Here is his open letter:

To Whom It May Concern:

It is with a heavy heart that I have decided to resign my candidacy for State Representative in Ohio's 31st House District. Due to an unforeseen family illness, I have decided it is in the best interest of my family to no longer pursue this seat at this time. While I remain dedicated to working to improve our great Westside community, I simply must put my family first. My wife and I ask that everyone keep our family in their thoughts and prayers, as we have a difficult road ahead of us.

The Hamilton County Republican Party should have an individual to replace me on the ballot within the next few weeks. I am eagerly looking forward to working with my replacement and remaining active in the community, albeit in a less demanding roll, as we continually work to improve our neighborhoods.

The Westside is a very unique part of Ohio; as I step down from the political arena today, I would like to ask every Westside resident to take pride in our community and vote this November for representatives that will work as hard as I have to better our neighborhood.

In closing I would like to thank everyone in the 31st House District for all of their support, and I look forward to working together further down the road.

Sincerely,
Scott Gehring

The 31st district has been represented for the last 8 years by Steve Driehaus, who is moving on to run in the 1st Congressional district race against Steve Chabot. Driehaus' sister Denise, a local business owner, is the Democratic candidate in this race.

Scott had made this run in 2006 and won only 32.67% of the vote against Steve Driehaus.

Gehring's 2008 post primary filings show he had $4,999.65 cash on hand.

Well, That Didn't Take Long

By Paul - Posted on 11 May 2008 12:32am

Again with the out of town stuff.

Blue Bexley was on the scene today when Dave Regan and William Craig Bashein were appointed as add-on superdelegates, and now comes news that Regan has announced his support for Obama.

There has been a lot of superdelegate movement in the last 36 hours, more details tomorrow.

Tim Ryan Vows To Continue Ralph Regula's Work In Congress

By Paul - Posted on 09 May 2008 07:23pm

Sounds strange, I agree, but it's true.

It seems that Regula, since 1977 has worked to keep Mt. McKinley in Alaska named after William McKinley the 25th President of the United States, who was born in Niles, Ohio.

And who else lives in Niles, Ohio? Tim Ryan!

Congress’ leading defender of President William McKinley is retiring, but he has recruited another lawmaker to carry on his effort to keep America’s tallest mountain named after the 25th president.

Ohio Republican Ralph Regula has introduced legislation repeatedly during his 35-year congressional career to prevent Alaskans from changing the name of Mt. McKinley to Denali, its Native Alaskan name.

With Regula retiring at the end of this Congress, some had thought that the renaming might proceed next year. But a fellow Ohioan — Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan — plans to continue Regula’s defensive actions.

Since 1977, Regula has either introduced a bill early in every session or has managed to get a policy rider attached to an appropriations law to keep the mountain’s federal designation as McKinley.

Gotta love that bi-partisanship!

Upcoming Primaries

Date State / Delegates
Tue, May 13 West Virginia
39 Delegates
Tue, May 20 Kentucky
60 Delegates
Tue, May 20 Oregon
65 Delegates
Sun, Jun 1 Puerto Rico
63 Delegates
Tue, Jun 3 South Dakota
23 Delegates
Tue, Jun 3 Montana
24 Delegates

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